Forecast of economic development in 2018

In 2017, government analysts predicted in advance options for the growth of the Russian economy in 2018. So, quite different data were made by experts from various consulting, investment and economic companies. Despite the large differences in development scenarios, they have one thing in common - the economy is always tied to the direction of the country's domestic and foreign policy.

The economic forecast of world professionals for the Russian Federation for the next 2018 is aimed at political events, possible military conflicts and the end of territorial disputes in the world.
Today, domestic politicians officially declare the end of the crisis situation in the country and very difficult times for entrepreneurs and organizations. However, these forecasts are made against the backdrop of too little statistics at the beginning of 2017. So, in 2016, the country's gross product is characterized by a large decline, and in 2017 its level was only 1.2%, and not 3.7%, as in 2016. But, as Profil magazine's macroeconomists say, the suspension of the economic recession is not equivalent to the beginning of growth. You also need to take a closer look at recent statistics. It is necessary to indicate the growth of the expert sphere, which is estimated, on average, at one and a half percent per year. The country's defense industry is rapidly developing, and has either 15% or 13% growth per year.
Even agriculture is steadily growing at 3% per year. But in Russia, for 18 consecutive months, one can observe a constant drop in the level of income of the population, and this automatically leads to a crisis in individual entrepreneurship, the service sector, the construction market, and the tourism sector. The decrease in investments in the Russian economy is also not a positive factor, and does not allow us to think about the imminent growth. Analysts' forecast about the imminent possibility of leveling off the investment market also remains negative in the atmosphere of maintaining acute relations with the West and possible sanctions against Russia.
According to all current theories, the normal situation for an economy is one of growth and expansion. We can assume that the turn from a decrease of 0.8% to an increase of 0.5% is small, it can be overcome in a time equal to a financial year, but this is subject to the development of the Russian economy. Predictions for the Russian economy depend not only on greater growth in its manufacturing and services sectors, but also on export prices for oil resources.
Therefore, if the price of “black gold” rises to $60 per barrel this year alone, then there is a real possibility of development, an opportunity to reverse the current situation and turn the so-called rails of economic development towards growth. Yet many experts predict that even if the cost rises to $58 per barrel, this trend will not last long and will not allow the economy to stabilize. The growth of the Russian economy can be increased not only by the high price of oil, but also by state assistance to individual entrepreneurs, financial investment in the prosperity of agriculture, and an increase in labor productivity. Interestingly, analysts do not consider the main problems for economic growth to be the decline in oil prices and the unstable exchange rate of the national currency. According to them, the structural obstacles are, as before, the high level of corruption and inflation, which, nevertheless, already show a downward trend. We can say that the economy will continue to be just as unstable in the near future, even in the event of a slight increase in the income of Russians, they will not be in a hurry to spend money, preferring to accumulate it, so we can’t talk about any big growth yet.

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